The Focused AI Captain – Episode 1: The Ghost Ship Phenomenon

Dec 18, 2025

Episode 1 – The Ghost Ship Phenomenon

Why 95% of AI Pilots Fail and How to Avoid the “Capsize Ratio”

Episode Overview

In the opening episode of The Focused AI Captain series, René Esteban explores why the vast majority of AI initiatives never make it beyond the pilot stage—and what distinguishes the few organizations that successfully scale AI from those that silently fail.

Drawing on decades of transformation experience and current research from MIT, McKinsey, and Harvard, René introduces the Ghost Ship Phenomenon: organizations investing heavily in AI technology without equipping their people, processes, and structures to actually use it.

This episode reframes AI transformation as a human and organizational challenge, not a technical one.

Key Topics & Insights

  • Why 95% of enterprise AI pilots deliver zero ROI

  • The Ghost Ship Phenomenon: advanced technology without direction or adoption

  • The widening enthusiasm gap between AI interest and real-world integration

  • Why treating AI like a software rollout guarantees failure

  • The Capsize Ratio: how unbalanced investment sinks AI initiatives

  • Why successful organizations invest 70% in people and processes

  • What frontline resistance to AI really signals

  • How to assess your organization’s AI maturity and capsize risk

Key Framework Introduced

The Capsize Ratio

  • Failing organizations:

    • 80% technology

    • 20% people & processes

  • Successful organizations:

    • 10% algorithms

    • 20% infrastructure

    • 70% people, leadership, and organizational design

Resources Mentioned

What’s Next

In Episode 2, René explains why no AI journey can succeed without absolute clarity on the starting point—and how most organizations get this wrong from day one.